Application of the VARIMA Model for Forecasting Hotel Room Occupancy Rates in South Sumatra Province
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Abstract
The tourism sector is one sector of regional revenues through the large number of local and foreign tourists who come to an area to travel. To increase regional revenues, the region must provide adequate accommodation, such as hotels or existing accommodation, which will have an impact on the Room Occupancy Rate (THK). The THK percentage experiences significant fluctuations every year in each region, including in South Sumatra Province. These fluctuations can affect business planning and hotel management, so it is necessary to analyze the hotel's THK percentage. This research aims to find the best model for predicting THK for star and non-star hotels in South Sumatra Province. The method used is the Vector Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (VARIMA) model, with Time Series data on the percentage of THK for star and non-star hotels in South Sumatra Province from January 2017 to September 2023. The research results show that the best model is VARIMA (2,1,0) . The model accuracy is very good based on the mean absolute percentage error value, namely 8.216% for THK star hotels and 3.989% for non-star hotels
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